中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析
林伯强;蒋竺均;
摘要(Abstract)：
中国二氧化碳排放的拐点对二氧化碳排放的认识和中国对二氧化碳排放的承诺十分重要。迄今国内还没有对中国二氧化碳排放拐点和预测的研究。本文利用传统的环境库兹涅茨模型模拟与在二氧化碳排放预测的基础上预测两种方法,对中国的二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线做了对比研究和预测,发现结果存在较大差异。采用对数平均迪式分解法(LMDI)和STIRPA模型,分析了影响中国人均二氧化碳排放的主要因素,解析差异原因。本文的主要结论是:(1)中国二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线的理论拐点对应的人均收入是37170元,即2020年左右。但实证预测表明,拐点到2040年还没有出现;(2)除了人均收入外,能源强度,产业结构和能源消费结构都对二氧化碳排放有显著影响,特别是能源强度中的工业能源强度。
关键词(KeyWords)： 二氧化碳;环境库兹涅茨曲线;能源强度
基金项目(Foundation): 长江学者科研配套经费;; 国家社科基金(08BJL050)的支持
作者(Authors): 林伯强;蒋竺均;
DOI: 10.19744/j.cnki.11-1235/f.2009.04.004
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